Political analyst Alexei Mukhin — what can cause the virus to “color revolution” in the Belarusian society
Photo: TASS/Yuri Mashkov
President Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, it seems, is a complicated situation. On Saturday in Minsk and other cities of the country held unsanctioned opposition rally. Human rights defenders reported hundreds of detainees, and the European Union called the actions of the Minsk contrary to the obligations of democratization.
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The Russian side at the time, recommended that the members of the Lukashenko regime to pay attention to warning signs of the virus a “color revolution” in the Belarusian civil society, but then this advice was ignored. Motivated by this optimism to the fact that the special services of Belarus in full control of the situation. However, this kind of mood was observed in the late 1980s in the Soviet Union, but what happened next demonstrated, so to speak, the seriousness of our “Western partners”. No wonder the term is now taken to be enclosed in quotes.
Of course, Alexander Lukashenko is an experienced and sophisticated politician, to actually ignore alarming symptoms in the political system of their country. However, the game waged by the leadership of Belarus in recent times — direct contact with the International monetary Fund and the European Union, attempts to restore cooperation with the United States and so forth, will inevitably bring Lukashenko to the line that he never crossed. Namely, the admission into the country of foreign NGOs and the adoption of programmes of political and economic reform on the Western model.
This experience shows in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe, will mean the phasing out of economic and then political sovereignty of Belarus in favor of global institutions that are under full control of those same “Western partners”.
Misunderstanding in relations between Minsk and Moscow happened before. However, in this case, you can suspect some kind of subtle play of East–West and a desire to improve their status in the eyes of Russia accordingly determined at the same time, some quite technical problems. For example, the problem of default of Belarus that could threaten the country in 2018. And the main stumbling block at the moment are not only the country’s debt to “Gazprom”. Despite previous agreements not resolved the issue about placing in Belarus the Russian military infrastructure. However, instead of making intensive joint exercises of the armed forces of both countries.
Lukashenka should have alerted insistence of his new partners in the West to desist from the establishment of the Russian bases on the territory of the country, which would increase the level of security of the contour of the Union state of Russia and Belarus. Especially suspicious is the requirement appears in the conditions of intensive arrival of NATO forces in regions near the borders of Belarus.
This is the state of relations between the strategic partners — Russia and Belarus — of course, can not be considered the norm, the situation should be changed. However, the partnership is in motion towards each other, not in the resumption of a political flirtation with a third party, how attractive or seem its proposal.
The artificiality of the crisis in relations between Russia and Belarus and stressed that mutual claims are expressed predominantly on an emotional, not legal level. Of course, some optimism inspires the fact that the “lovers’ tiffs are harmless”, but not necessary, I think, to underestimate the experience of fishing the Western countries of the former Soviet republics in its orbit of influence.
And this is done using various methods, including warping of national economies, the corruption of the elites, a direct Subversion of the population, including through social networks. Too obvious tragic consequences for the countries that enthusiastically either indulged in, or surrender to such temptations. Let’s take the example of Georgia and Ukraine.
The author is General Director of the Center for political information