Banks can lend 15 trillion

Banks can lend 15 trillion

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The existing stock of capital allows them to support the economy


Photo: lime/Alex Maishev

Individuals and businesses can take in the Bank of around 15 trillion of new loans this year. Of these, about 3.5 trillion roubles unable to citizens. An evaluation for “News” has led analysts based on the data of the Central Bank. However, citizens and companies are unlikely to obtain loans in such amounts, as the credit organizations will not rush with the build-up of loan portfolios due to deterioration in the quality of borrowers, experts said.

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The worsening economic situation in the country and implementation of international standards “Basel III” for banks in the past two years has resulted in a reduction of lending to individuals and businesses. Despite this, now banks have very strong capital cushion for the expansion of lending to customers, said Tuesday the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. According to her, is 1.8 trillion rubles.

— The banking system as a whole has recovered from the shock of 2014-2015. Talking about it, and the data on profit margins, inventory, capital and other. Banks have every opportunity to develop the business to increase lending. Adequacy ratio total capital is at a comfortable level — a little over 13% with a minimum value of 8%. The current stock of capital are estimated at 1.8 trillion rubles, — said the head of the Central Bank.

Chief analyst at Promsvyazbank (PSB) Dmitry Monastyrshin calculated for the “News” that this amount of equity capital allows the banks to increase their commitments by about 20 to 23 trillion rubles. Accordingly, taking into account the need to create reserves for possible losses on loans, as well as the supply of liquidity, banks may issue new loans of about 15 trillion rubles.

— While maintaining the current structure of the credit portfolio by about 11 trillion rubles may be increased corporate portfolio and 3.5 trillion — retail, — said Dmitry Monastyrshin.

At the beginning of the year the corporate loan portfolio of the banking system amounted to 30.1 trillion rubles, the loan portfolio to individuals 10.8 trillion. According to the Central Bank, the volume of loans to enterprises over the past year fell by 9.5%, or 3.2 trillion rubles. With regard to currency revaluation, the decline was 3.6%. In the past year the volume issued by banks only mortgage loans amounted to 1.5 trillion rubles. According to forecasts of the Agency for housing mortgage lending (AHML) and analysts, this figure will reach 1.8 trillion rubles at the end of this year.

Senior analyst, group Finance Analytical credit rating Agency (ACRA) Mikhail Doronkin added that the head of the Central Bank the assessment of Bank capital is based on ratio of equity capital — D1.0, which is defined as the ratio of own funds of the Bank’s assets taking into account the level of risk. The entire equity capital of the credit institution consists of the sum of core capital and additional. In turn, the fixed capital is the sum of core capital and additional capital.

N1.2 reflects the adequacy of core capital. If the margin of H1.0 is now about 5 percentage points compared to the minimum level (8%), on H1.2 — 3 percentage points, said Mikhail Doronkin.

— Appropriate capital cushion of the banking sector in H1.2 is about 1 trillion roubles to 1.8 trillion rubles in H1.0. Even this magnitude is enough to increase the current amount of assets subject to risks in 1.5 times without breaking the standard assuming constant capital value, the analyst said.

According to the Bank, the total assets of the banking sector on 1 March amounted to 79,4 trillion rubles. Thus, taking into account the stock of capital they can exceed 100 trillion.

However, said Mikhail Doronkin, the potential volume of lending depends on the level of riskiness of loans issued. The less risk, the less banks need to divert capital to cover risks in accordance with the requirements of the Central Bank and Vice versa.

In this regard, banks are in no hurry to increase credit portfolios, as the financial status of potential borrowers in recent years have shown significant weakening, said Dmitry Monastyrshin of PSB.

— Credit growth in such conditions is associated with high risk. In addition, the increase in the requirement of adequacy of own funds of banks in accordance with the standards of “Basel III” over the next three years, requires banks to create additional reserves of strength in the capital, — said the analyst.

Gradual implementation of international standards “Basel III”, developed by the Basel Committee of banking supervision, began in Russia in 2014. The process is scheduled for completion in 2019.

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