The analysts of National intelligence came to the conclusion that over the next five years, the risk of conflict between countries and within countries will rise to an unprecedented since the cold war level
The National intelligence Council of the USA has prepared a report “Global trends: a Paradox of progress,” which came to the conclusion that over the next five years, the risk of conflict between countries and within countries will rise to an unprecedented since the cold war, reports Reuters.
According to the authors of the report, this happens due to the fact that the world order established after the Second world war, collapses under the influence of anti-globalization and nationalism.
“These trends will converge with unprecedented speed, complexity management and collaboration, changing the nature of power and fundamentally altering the global landscape”, — quotes Agency the text of the report, the presentation of which takes place on January 9 at the Newseum Institute in Washington.
Excessive expectation is that financial incentives can control the level of escalation of the conflict only deepens the risk of conflicts and differences in values and interests of the countries will lead to the fact that the regional powers will start to “spheres of influence”, warn the authors of the study.
Among the factors that form the “dark and difficult near future”, the report of National intelligence highlighted “more aggressive” Russia and China, regional conflicts, terrorism, rising income inequality, climate change and weak economic growth.
Reuters notes that the report’s authors deliberately avoid analysis of the future political course of the United States, however, the study pays special attention to those areas that promised to focus during his election campaign President-elect, Donald trump, promising to improve U.S. relations with Russia, the revision of economic relations with China, returning jobs to the USA and fight against terrorism.
The report notes that in the next decade will increase the level of threat of terrorism, which will come from small groups and individuals, “armed with new technologies, ideas and relationships”.
In addition, the weakening of human rights and international law combined with the fact that Western countries are “locked to themselves”, will encourage Russia and China to challenge U.S. influence in the world, according to National intelligence of the USA. These problems, according to the authors of the report, will not lead to direct military conflict, however, carry risks “substantial errors in calculations”.
In addition, globalization and technological progress, deepen existing social and economic inequalities between the rich who are becoming richer and the poor, whose position practically is not changed. In conjunction with the fact that the middle class is reduced, these processes threaten to further growth of anti-immigrant sentiment and antielitnye, the report said.
Positive trends in the economy are considered by the authors as a short-term, mainly due to the efforts of world governments to overcome the consequences of the protracted economic crisis.
On the other hand, the authors of the report note that “the paradox of progress” is that the trends that lead to this bleak picture, can create opportunities for the emergence of a more favorable prognosis in the long term.
The national intelligence Council prepares its reports based on the records of the 17 intelligence agencies of the United States. His research is considered the most comprehensive analytical product of American intelligence, notes Reuters.
The full report will be published after the event on the website of the office of the Director of National intelligence.