Economists HSE noticed the first signs of a possible end to recession

Economists HSE noticed the first signs of a possible end to recession

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Analysts agree that a positive trend is “too timid”, but I believe that the most acute phase of the recession has passed and no new shocks to the deterioration of the situation will be

In the economy of Russia was “the first serious signs of a possible end to the recession,” reads the report prepared by the development Center of the Higher school of Economics (HSE). The document States that in August 2016, economic activity increased in 44 regions of the country, while a decrease in the activity was observed only in nine.

“Although these improvements occurred relatively openly depressed levels, and not always indicate the growth in economic activity (sometimes only on the slowdown of the decline), the reason for the formation of more positive expectations, of course, came,” write the authors of the report.

HSE experts have noted that in September 2016 we expect their combined index (SDI) for the first time in three and a half years has risen above zero (+0.2 percent). The last time SOI came out in February 2013.

In the fall of 2016 the rise of SOYBEANS is above zero, provided such financial indicators as the volume of money supply and stock prices of Russian companies. Their positive dynamics in the present, “outweigh” very low global oil prices and weak domestic demand, experts say the HSE. The optimism of the financial market experts see signs of a speedy completion of the decline and transition of the economy to stagnation or even moderate growth.

In the previous version of the report, the HSE statedthat Russia’s economy is “still stuck at the bottom” and recovery and subsequent growth acceleration in the Russian economy at the end of the year will not be. Now the experts are more optimistic, however, recognize that the positive trends are still “too timid” and the budget problem can lead to a new round of reduction of industrial and consumer demand.

“On the other hand, the most acute phase of recession is obviously already passed. No new shocks to the sharp deterioration will not be”, — emphasized in the report.

The prospects for growth in the coming years, HSE experts estimate about 0.5% under the condition of stability in oil prices and the conduct of fiscal consolidation.