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In Russia, there is a second wave of recovery, “economic attitudes” of citizens and entrepreneurs, written by experts of the HSE. Although the index grows, the business climate in the country remains poor
The index of “economic sentiment” of Russians in the third quarter added 2.1 points, reaching the level of 87,6, write in a fresh review, experts of the Center for business research at the Higher school of Economics (HSE). The second wave of recovery “is gaining momentum,” economists say. The first was in the second quarter of last year, but “was short-lived and immediately replaced by a new downturn.”
When calculating the index takes into account consumer expectations of citizens and business activity of Russian companies according to Rosstat. The survey involved 20 thousand heads of organizations from different sectors of the economy (industry, construction, retail trade, services).
The growth rate for the last two quarters partially offset the previous fall (in 2015 and early 2016, he was at crisis levels). While it is below its long-run level (100) for nine quarters in a row and not even reach the values of the fourth quarter of 2014, when the recession began. This means that the business climate in Russia “is consistently unfavorable,” the study says. However, now the index “economic sentiment” is at a higher level than in previous crises: in 1998 it was 76.4, and in 2009 to 69.4, which was an absolute record.
Growth in the third quarter was shown by most components of the indicator, although some of them remained in the zone of negative values. Negative trend, however, was observed in assessments of demand for industrial products, expected changes in the economic situation of retail companies and actual changes in demand for services.
Russia’s economy has moved from recession to stagnation, said in early September the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev. One of the main reasons for this was the adaptation of entrepreneurs to the current situation, says the research Director of the Center for market research HSE George Ostapkovich. Important role, in his estimation, played a “relative” improvement of macroeconomic indicators, in particular, the reduction of inflation (from January to September, prices rose by 7.5% compared to the same period last year, in 2015, inflation was 15.9%), the stabilization of the ruble, reducing the outflow of capital and crisis the work of the government.