Forecast total optimism

Forecast total optimism


For the first time in ten years, the economic development Ministry, the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Russia coincided in the forecast of key indicators

The budget deficit and inflation will decrease GDP growth in the next three years — such optimistic forecasts base their plans, the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of economic development and the Bank of Russia. By 2019, I think of the Ministry, the budget deficit will be just 1.2%, the GDP will grow by 2.1%, inflation slowed to a record 4%. Of such order at the meeting of the government of the Russian trilateral Commission on Friday announced the Deputy Ministers of Finance and economic development Alexey Lavrov and Alexei Vedev. The government expect to come out of these indicators will be possible thanks to investment growth, increasing revenues and inflation targeting. Experts of optimism of the financial and economic blocks do not share.

In this decade, the Ministry of Finance, the MAYOR and the Central Bank has been able to match his vision of economic indicators in the medium term. The MAYOR, for example, has consistently criticized the Central Bank target inflation at 4% in 2017 and 3% budget deficit. These targets economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev was even called “fetishes”. In turn, the Central Bank in the official forecasts “did not believe” in the MAYOR’s expected economic growth. However, when preparing the budget for the next three years, all three managed to finally coincide in opinion.

The economic development Ministry forecasts GDP growth at 0.6, 1.7 and 2.1% in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. As expected by the Agency, this will be possible thanks to the revival of consumer activity (the growth rate of retail trade turnover will gradually increase — from 1.1% in 2017 to 2.5% in 2019) and investment demand. Also, the Ministry is counting on export growth.

— Forecast laid dynamics of investments into fixed capital, exceeding the dynamics of GDP, — said Alexei Vedev.

According to him, economic recovery could begin in the fourth quarter of this year.

Managing Director, BCS Ultima Vitaly Bagmanov sees no reason for the growth of investments in fixed capital at a rate higher than GDP.

— It is hardly possible to count on growth of investments into fixed capital for this at the moment, there are no significant assumptions. Without real structural reforms, including reducing the role of power structures in the economy and increasing the level of protection of private property, against the backdrop of slowing Russian economy private business is unlikely to be ready to increase the level of investments, — the expert believes.

According to the monitoring of the MAYOR in eight months, while the basic indicators is not too inspiring: GDP fell by 0.7%, and real disposable incomes by 5.8%, retail trade turnover — by 5.7%. The decline of investment in fixed capital in the second quarter was 3.9%.

The Ministry of Finance, in turn, expects the planned reduction of the budget deficit (3, 2.2, and 1.2% in years 2017-2019). The costs will remain roughly at the same level (about 16 trillion), but the income will grow (13.5 trillion, 14 trillion and 14.8 trillion rubles). Whereby this is achieved, the representative of the Ministry of Finance to explain the “news” could not. In the “Main directions of budget policy” for the next three years indicated that the oil and gas and non-oil revenues will decline to GDP. Under these conditions, the Finance Ministry is preparing a package of measures to mobilize revenues, which will bring about 1 trillion rubles of additional revenue annually.

Measures include modification of taxation of the oil industry (150-210 billion in 2017-2019 years), the severance tax on gas (at 170 billion), the consolidation of the norms of the dividends from state-owned companies at 50% (about 300 billion rubles per year), the indexation of excise taxes on tobacco (126-199 billion), the sale of material valuables from the state reserve (40 billion rubles in 2017).

To Finance the Treasury deficit will be at the expense of the funds and the extension of a borrowing programme (about 1.1 trillion roubles of domestic borrowing annually).

— Next year the Reserve Fund will be fully utilised. And we will use the NWF funds that are not yet included in the assets. But this is enough for a three-year period. From 2019 the planned preservation of the volume of sovereign funds, — said Alexey Lavrov.

The goal of the Central Bank inflation is the most tangible. In September, the annual inflation rate was 6.4%, for the year it will not exceed 6%, is expected in the Central Bank.

— At the moment, the inflationary pressure is really decreased slightly due to a decline in consumer spending and real disposable incomes, so in that case, if monetary policy is to be as conservative as it is now, the strong price growth in the next 2-3 years we will not see, — said Vitaly Bagmanov.

However, the risks are definitely there, said the expert. According to him, a certain part of society are inclined to think that for effective development of the country needed economic stimulus measures.

— If the state starts pumping the economy with resources, inflation forecasts become insolvent. In addition, you can make adjustments and external factors — for example, ahead of the forecasts the growth of prices for energy carriers, — said Vitaly Bagmanov.

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