Senator Andrey Klimov — that could take the EU to fall apart completely
The author is not from those who already see irreversible final of the European Union. Dizzying changes in the EU are just beginning. Here and in Macedonia last autumn session of the OSCE parliamentary Assembly showed the world serious passions in EU communal.
Forgetting that the OSCE is not a place for public discussions between members of the “European family”, that is something the countries of the Union would have to sing “one voice”, their parliamentarians were out in front of the other delegates. As the head of the Russian delegation, I even had to remind the audience that we are not in the European Parliament, and that the most pressing issues of security and cooperation in the OSCE area cannot be addressed only from Brussels to the format of the EU. Agreed with colleagues from Asia, Africa and finally North America.
By the way, on the way to Skopje we had a chance to spend the day in Vienna. Was talking with local senators and deputies of the national Parliament and the European Parliament, diplomats, public figures. None has denied the crisis, the EU and the need for its reform. However, no one (including right-wing eurosceptics) did not deny the need to preserve the EU, but rather as an economic Union, not as a quasi-state of all of Europe. Exactly as the “common market” and thought of this Union in the middle of the last century.
In this case, none of the Vienna interlocutors were not made in defense of anti-Russian policy of Brussels. On the contrary, the Austrians believed that sanctions war waged at the behest of Washington, prevents the solution of their own problems. The same sentiment soared, and in the margins of the autumn session of the OSCE. With the exception of deputies from the Baltic States, Poland and Sweden, the interlocutors talked about how to overcome the deadlock of relations with Moscow.
But back to the EU. What awaits the “United Europe”? To sum up my own observations and opinions of authoritative experts “on the side”, the following picture emerges: in the absence of timely and fundamental adjustments to the European integration process the future of the Old world was problematic.
The most dire scenario, even draw paintings of the civil war and guerrilla warfare within the borders of the European Union. Less nightmarish projections suggest a combination of two options: complete collapse of the EU along the lines of the state borders of member countries or even along the lines of the administrative boundaries in some of them; partial fragmentation of the EU into several blocks.
Maps of dismemberment has already flashed on the Internet. Most often, they draw three regional groups: the “Roman” (most Western Europe), “German” (the center of the current EU), Polish (Eastern part EU). Experts are wondering about whether Germany, France and Italy under the influence of internal political processes and external challenges to finally return to their national quarters. In any case, it is clear that without such countries as Germany, the European Union will completely lose its economic stability and former appeal for “new Europeans”.
However, the half-life of Europe started long before the current aggravation of the situation. In my opinion, it happened after 2008, when in Brussels, do not bet on a strategic partnership with Russia, and the actual squeezing of the largest European state from the political space of the common European home “from the Atlantic to the Urals”.
Since 2009, Brussels has begun the practical implementation of the invented in Warsaw and supported by the Stockholm Eastern partnership engendered by the contradictions between Russia and the European CIS countries. At the same time Moscow began to groundlessly accuse of use of the notorious “energy weapon against Europe”. Negotiations on a new agreement EU–Russia have stalled, and instead the European Union openly declared Russia sanctions war and started war information and diplomatic. The trade turnover with EU countries in 2013 fell visibly, we went to other markets, and the European Union ceased to be a leading economic partner of Russia. Stopped annual summits Russia–EU. The Russian delegation was forced to leave the PACE…
But strained, forcing Europe’s second half, splitting the continent, EU commissioners was one on one with all new challenges. US, has long encouraged the European half-lives were in the clear win — weakened the EU as a competitor in the global market and strengthened the dependency of Brussels from Washington. Illegal migrants and terrorist groups also cheered and enthusiastically pounced on the feeble old Europe. That is triggered from Brussels half-life of a common European home is already happening and causing considerable damage to all Europeans. Moreover, its logical continuation is nothing like a disintegration of the EU itself.
Soviet Union lasted about seventy years. As in the present EU, was the common customs area, a common currency. Was and controls outside the control of the Union republics. Finally ruined the Soviet Union, in my opinion, the separation of politics from Economics, the primacy of ideological dogma over common sense and attempts to expand its influence in the whole world and imposing to the rest of humanity’s own controversial doctrines.
In 2019, the EU (minus Britain) will celebrate the sixtieth anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which, in fact, started the European integration the second half of the twentieth century. Before the Soviet “record” aesovtsev ten years. In this sense, they have time to think again and instead of ideological dogmatism to do the real thing. In the first place to overcome the gap of Brussels from the real needs of the member States of the EU, their people and stop playing into the cold war with the other half of Europe.
The author is Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on international Affairs
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial Board