Political analyst Viktor Pirozhenko about what opportunities are opened before Ukraine if the Association with the EU will not take place
Kiev fails the entire foreign policy agenda of the coup of February 2014, for which he, according to the official version, in fact, was instigated and committed. At the moment it goes to the fact that the Netherlands is ready to abandon the Association agreement with Ukraine, and the introduction of a visa-free regime for Ukrainian citizens when travelling in the EU will be postponed again.
It is obvious that the fatigue of Europe from the Ukraine has reached a critical point and results in direct sabotage of the principal forms of rapprochement with the Kiev regime.
Prime Minister of the Netherlands mark Rutte at a recent meeting of the EU summit announced that his government is likely to refuse ratifying the agreement with Ukraine. Therefore, the head of the Ukrainian foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin October 26, left for the Hague to figure out how to solve the problem of ratification of the agreement to suit both sides. On the same day the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko discussed this issue with Prime Minister Rutte on the phone.
At the moment the procedure of entry into force of the Association Agreement with the EU Ukraine has not been completed because the government of the Netherlands, given the results of the referendum, refusing to bring it to the end. As for the Treaty to enter into force requires ratification of the document by all EU members. However, most of the articles of the Association agreement with Ukraine is already in force on a temporary basis, such as the free trade area between the EU and Ukraine.
The refusal of the Netherlands on the ratification of the document means a procedure is running, the abolition of the provisional application of the agreement. The corresponding decision must bear the EU Council on the proposal of the European Commission or foreign policy on the EU. It will primarily termination of a free trade zone between the EU and Ukraine.
Options for further developments two.
The first Prime Minister Rutte will continue to delay the final decision, given the disagreement of the majority of the Dutch people in the referendum on Association of the EU and Ukraine. At the same time he would not initiate in Parliament the abolition of the ratification pending more favorable circumstances. The Parliament, too, will not take any steps in this direction. The second variant — the Dutch Parliament will take the decision to cancel the ratification, which would mean the final refusal of the Netherlands on Association with Ukraine. In this case, all the Association agreement between the EU and Ukraine, if not abolished, then at least suspend its action.
Given that the Dutch Parliament was appointed on 1 November deadline that the government has decided this question, most likely, events will develop according to the second embodiment.
However, the Hague offers to Kiev to formalize a number of additions to the text of the agreement that would make possible the ratification of the document. However, while in the Hague, Klimkin said that Ukraine will not do.
Thus, for the political ambitions of the Ukrainian side develops a catastrophic situation. And if in Kiev are willing to put up with the condition that the regime will not receive preferential treatment in financial aid from the EU institutions, the provision that the Association is not a form of movement of Ukraine to membership in the European Union, the Kiev regime is totally unacceptable. Such an approach invalidates the entire document, because the idea of EU membership, despite the initial and obvious to many, the utopian, is for Kiev the cherished goal of foreign policy aspirations.
That is why the issue of changes to the agreement, Kiev is so unyielding.
It is equally difficult for Kyiv the situation in the question of introduction of a visa-free regime with the EU.
Here the situation turns into a joke: Poroshenko promised in an N-umpteenth time, the introduction of a visa-free regime on 24 November, most likely, will not take place. This issue was not even included in the agenda of the October session of the European Parliament, the next session of which is scheduled for late November. Even if the decision on visa-free regime with Ukraine will be accepted, it must be approved by three EU bodies: the European Council, the European Parliament Chairman and foreign Minister of the state, which holds the EU presidency. Until November 24 they fail in any way.
And one more thing. Regardless of the consent of leadership of the EU on the visa-free regime with a country, you need to perform a General categorical condition is that Brussels needs to adopt a law on the procedure for the suspension of visa-free regime in certain cases. Without such a mechanism will not be able to take action and visa-free regime.
Moreover, it is unlikely that all the European courts will ignore the risks for the EU from even short-term influx of anti-social elements from Ukraine, past war, and prone to criminality.
What’s the bottom line?
The Association with the EU, for which were destroyed and burned in the center of Kiev, killed more than hundred people during the coup and thousands more in the ongoing regime of the civil war in the East of Ukraine, abolished the whole industry due to rupture of cooperation with the Russian manufacturers are clearly not held.
In the EU the number who disagree with the formats of the close approach with unpredictable Kiev, close to the Dutch figures. This means that in many countries of the European Union is ripe for forces that are ready to go the way of the Netherlands.
The promise of “visa-free regime”, which had replaced Kiev authorities the slogan “EU membership” is not running. At the same time, notice how shallow ambitions and promises of the Kiev authorities — from European integration to humiliating hopes to be admitted to the threshold of the European Union.
The irony of the whole situation that the Netherlands and the EU as a whole give the Kiev leadership the chance to improve things in Ukraine, according to the proverb — “there would be no happiness, Yes the misfortune has helped”. The uncertainty of the Association allows Kiev to get out of deadly for the Ukrainian economy of a free trade zone with the EU and to rebuild the industrial-technological cooperation with Russia. In addition, the Russian side still are willing to help, and confirmed recently by President Vladimir Putin.
Author — columnist of “Izvestia”
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial Board