Nabiullina said about the beginning of a new economic cycle

Nabiullina said about the beginning of a new economic cycle

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Elvira Nabiullina

Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

Speaking at the Congress of the ARB, head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina announced the beginning of a new economic cycle. According to her, to date, the banking system of Russia “as a whole recovered after the shocks of 2014-2015”

Bank of Russia Chairman Elvira Nabiullina announced the beginning of a new economic cycle, the correspondent of RBC.

“Now we can talk about the beginning of a new economic cycle: recession ended, the number of industries grows faster pace, real wages began to rise, there are signs of revival in demand”, — said Nabiullina, speaking at the Congress of the Association of Russian banks (ARB).

She noted that the data on profit margins, as well as the capital stock suggests that to date, the Russian banking system as a whole recovered after the shocks of 2014-2015. “Banks have every opportunity to develop the business, increase lending,” — said the head of the Central Bank.

“Adequacy ratio the total capital is at a comfortable level — a little over 13% with a minimum value of 8%. The current stock of capital is estimated at us $ 1 trillion 800 billion rubles, and it is sufficient to build credit,” — said Nabiullina.

The nominal profit of the banks, she said, recovered to pre — crisis level of about 1 trillion rubles., although in real terms the profit 2016 30% less than before the crisis. “We expect that banks will dispose of the profit to the banking sector, the banking business could grow faster but this lion’s share of profits should be directed into the capital”, — said the Chairman of the Bank of Russia. By the end of 2016 previously the capital of the banks was sent to 88% of profits.

On Friday, March 24, the Central Bank said the improved Outlook for GDP growth
in 2017, with 0.5–1% 1-1,5% (in 2018-2019 of the increase will be 1-2% instead of 1.5–2% on previous estimates). “We expect GDP growth of 1-1,5% by the end of 2017 and 1-2% in 2018-2019, given the current dynamics of the recovery processes and improving the sustainability of the economy to fluctuations in external economic conditions. For the development and consolidation of the positive trends necessary structural changes and time,” said the Central Bank following the meeting, which was reduced the key rate (from 10% to 9.75%).