Using computer simulation, American scientists have shown how dangerous can be artificial regulation of Earth’s climate using geoengineering technologies. The results of a study published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, suggests that such measures will lead to significant displacement of climatic zones and the consequences can be catastrophic for some species and reduces biodiversity on the planet.
Scientists have long seen as a possible means of combating the negative climate changes on the Earth (talking including talking about global warming) the use of technology geo-engineering or artificial control of the climate. In this approach, first proposed the change in the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans. In addition, we examined a method of solar geoengineering, which in theory should help reduce the amount of incoming sunlight planet by spraying the atmosphere special aerosol compounds. The sad truth is that, in addition to the positive changes that such measures may entail serious negative consequences, not only for climate, but for many living beings on Earth.
To assess possible risks from the use of solar geoengineering, an American climate scientists, led by Professor of the University of Maryland Christopher Trissa conducted a simulation of the possible displacement of the climate regions during the beginning and end phases of the conduct of geoengineering procedures.
In order to determine the level of influence of the ongoing changes in the zone of maximum biodiversity, scientists have measured the change of climate velocity — the ratio of the speed changes of the climate parameters (mainly temperature and precipitation) with time to the spatial gradient of the same parameter. This indicator shows how fast and in what direction will move certain climate zones, and helps to predict where and how fast will have to migrate the different types of marine and land creatures.
The researchers considered a scenario in which the processes of geoengineering spraying in the atmosphere gradually start within 10 years (2020 and 2030) and the entry-level, 5 teragrams of sulfur dioxide. The process then continues for the next 40 years, and then for the next 10 years there is a gradual cessation of spraying.
The speed of climate (temperature and rainfall), the researchers assessed for the entire surface of the planet in the first place paying attention to those areas where there is the greatest biodiversity of species (such as tropical zone of the oceans or the Amazon basin). The data obtained climatologists compared with the natural scenario of moderate climate change.
Data analysis showed that the launch and the continued spraying of aerosols will lead to a reduction of climate velocity relative to the current level and climate stabilization, however, the termination of this spraying can lead to sharp acceleration of temperature zones. The speed of these changes will be of the order of 10 kilometers per year. This is almost two times more than at present and projected for the future, in the natural scenarios of climate change, without the use of geoengineering technologies. In addition, the study showed more than twice the rapid shift of the sedimentary zones.
The most sensitive to temperature changes will be oceans in the tropical zones and the maximum speed of displacement of the sedimentary zones, according to the simulation results will be observed in the region of the Amazon basin and Siberia.
It will look like displacement map of climate zones in the termination of geoengineering procedures (above: G4 — geoengineering scenario, RCP4,5 — a natural scenario). Below shows a map of the zones in which the termination of geoengineering sediment and temperature zones will move in different directions (divergence angle more than 90 degrees)
The data modelling showed that the sudden cessation of spraying aerosols about 30 percent of the land area, the shift of temperature and sedimentary zones will occur in different directions (differences greater than 90 degrees).
The overall effect of the termination of the spraying of aerosols will look like the following: accelerate the displacement of climatic zones and the level of divergence of the sediment and temperature fields, which will lead to a significant change in existing ecosystems and, most likely, will cause mass extinction of a significant number of animal species and plants.
To quantify the effects of the researchers compared the rate of displacement of climatic zones with data on the displacement of animal habitats as a result of global warming in the recent past. The comparison showed that for most animals they are about 4-7 times smaller than the possible rate of displacement of climatic zones when you stop.
Scientists emphasize that the obtained results once again prove the danger of artificial climate change. If humanity still dare to carry out such procedures, this should be done with extreme caution, preliminary assessment of all possible risks. Risks not only for the climate but for and as such life on Earth.
More of the same early studies have shown that the risk of negative consequences from the use of geoengineering techniques can dramatically increase when there is uneven use. For example, the use of solar geoengineering only in the southern hemisphere could lead to a significant increase in the number of tropical cyclones. If the geoengineering will be applied only in the Northern hemisphere, it will reduce the number of cyclones, but it will lead to drought in Africa.