The main political trends of this year will become the beginning of campaign for elections of the President, change of heads of regions and relations with the United States
Photo: press service of the President of Russia/kremlin.EN
In 2017, experts as a major political topic called campaign for elections of the President of Russia and predict strong change of heads of regions. As suggested by the scientists, the external agenda will largely depend on the results of meetings and negotiations of the Russian leader Vladimir Putin and the elected President of the USA of Donald trump. Specific proposals for solving economic problems expect from the Chairman of the Economic Council under the President Alexei Kudrin, who on behalf of the head of state should submit the appropriate program in may of this year.
A reason to negotiate
In the new year, said Director of the International Institute of the newest States Alexei Martynov, we need to review the results of the October revolution of 1917. Date of the centennial is an occasion to find social consensus.
— This conditional gradation in red and white, right or wrong finally have to go out of our lives. All the blame that 100 years ago, and 25 destroyed their own state action or inaction. The state needs to be changed, but it does not have to destroy it. In the twentieth century we did it twice, I must honestly to say about it, to discuss everything and to go further — says Alexey Martynov.
The head of “Political expert group” Konstantin Kalachev noted that the discussion of the 1917 revolution should have the agenda of destruction and development.
One of the main political themes of 2017 will be the beginning of a presidential campaign, experts say.
— The degree of consolidation of society around the authorities is so high that not cause anybody the slightest doubt. The anti-Russian campaign launched by the outgoing administration of Barack Obama, has had the opposite effect. They wanted to discredit the Russian President, to force society to abandon it for the sake of cheap loans and other “cookies”. And faced with the reverse reaction of the Russian nature — have ensured that the rating of Vladimir Putin beat another record, society konsolidiruyutsya around him — said Martynov.
The main intrigue — in the form of elections, this issue is addressed in the Department of internal policy of presidential administration (AP), said Alexei Martynov.
— The new curator of the political bloc, first Deputy head of the AP Sergey Kirienko seeks the optimal shape of these elections. This topic is actively discussed in the closed mode, — said the analyst.
Among the presidential candidates can be representatives of the parliamentary parties and extra-parliamentary associations, experts say.
— In some sense still who will participate, in addition to Vladimir Putin, — said the Professor of the Higher school of Economics Oleg Matveychev. — I understand everything — and Zyuganov, Zhirinovsky, Navalny — that by a wide margin victory of Vladimir Putin. And not because there is some “administrative machine”, just the current President supported by more than 80% of Russians.
Updating the governors
Update in 2017 waiting for the Governor’s Cabinet, experts say. Reordering will become more intense, says Oleg Matveychev. Not to have the feeling that the same governors sit on the post for several terms.
— In the next year gubernatorial elections are expected in 15-20 regions and regional elections 6-7 doom, noted political analyst Andrei Kolyadin.
The transition of the former first Deputy head of the AP Vyacheslav Volodin in the state Duma for the post of speaker and the appointment of the curator of the political block of the Kremlin Sergey Kiriyenko should have a positive impact on the upcoming election campaigns, experts say.
The administration of President may take an active part in training or other personnel decisions in subjects of the Russian Federation, said Konstantin Kalachev. There is a line of continuity, however, according to experts, the new composition of AP can make to regional processes adjustments.
Personnel changes in 2017 can wait and the presidential administration, the reform of which is not yet finished, says Alexei Martynov.
— Claims in the year 2017 may be made as to regional authorities and to the government. It is likely that this year the government could resign, but not for political and technical reasons. This happens often in the run-up to presidential elections. The regional authorities are waiting for the update that is associated with the anti-corruption circumstances. The governors shall rotate according to the criteria of efficiency, — says the Director of the Center for political information Alexei Mukhin.
In 2017 again will unfold the discussion on ways of economic development of Russia for the coming years, says the head of the all-Russia centre of studying of public opinion (VTSIOM) Valery Fedorov. He recalled that in may the Deputy Chairman of the Economic Council under the President, the head of Committee of civil initiatives Alexei Kudrin needs to present the consensus with the government program of economic development of the country.
— Parliament will have to position itself differently than in 2016, more intensive work and Express their interests. And regional elites will have to find ways of surviving in situations where obligations are many and opportunities few, — predicts Valery Fedorov.
— This year to seriously deal with the economy — I agree with my colleague Konstantin Kalachev. Not by chance that in his message to the Federal Assembly the President spoke about the need to have a discussion on the restructuring of the tax system. It will be a tool development.
The meeting of the presidents
The foreign policy agenda of Russia in 2017 will largely depend on the outcome of meetings and negotiations between Vladimir Putin and the elected President of the USA of Donald trump, says Oleg Matveychev. It is important what position will the US against Russia.
— Trump is a businessman and just like that gifts will not do something ask in return, and this may be something that is unacceptable for us, — said the analyst.
The interaction between the two heads of States can grow even in a friendship, but is unlikely radically to change the Russian-American relations, suggests Alexei Mukhin. The administration of former US President has set a negative trend, and completely overcome it in the next year is unlikely, the expert believes.