In the ranking of socio-political stability of the regions for December, the leaders of the fall became Khakassia and Primorsky Krai
Photo: RIA NOVOSTI/Vladimir Smirnov
The St. Petersburg policy Foundation published the results of the monthly rating of social and political stability of the regions in December. Leaders of falling of a steel of Khakassia, Primorsky Krai (or minus 0.4 points) and Irkutsk oblast (minus 0.3 points). A small growth of Mordovia and Voronezh oblast (by 0.2 points). On the position of subjects in December, according to the drafters of the rating was influenced by the mass poisoning with tincture of “Hawthorn” in Irkutsk and high-profile corruption cases against local officials in the Republic of Khakassia and Primorsky Krai.
Gainers and losers
In December, the most successful regions (maximum resistance, 8 point) steel Tatarstan, Kaluga and Penza oblast and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Subjects with low tolerance (<5 points) was considered by the experts of the Republic of Karelia (3.6 points), North Ossetia (2.5) and Dagestan (2,3).
The highest growth was recorded from Mordovia, Voronezh, Sakhalin and Tver regions, and Kabardino-Balkaria (by 0.2 points compared with the rate in November). The largest drop in ranking was demonstrated Khakassia and Primorsky Krai (both by 0.4 points), as well as Irkutsk oblast and Adygea (indicators declined 0.3 points).
A pattern or a tragic accident
One of the main events of December, which influence on the regional agenda, was a mass poisoning surrogate alcohol in Irkutsk. As a result, the region lost 0.3 points in the rankings, dropping to a middle position in the category of subjects with a weak stability.
According to the head of Fund “the Petersburg policy” Michael Vinogradova, this event caused a reaction, in General, meet the established patterns of perception of what is happening in the regions of processes. However, the rapid dissemination of news and the Federal response to the case actually blocked the opportunity for expert analysis of whether Irkutsk was a manifestation of the General adverse trend or talking about a tragic but isolated case.
— It is clear that this situation is partly accidental: similar poisonings were in Soviet times. But here is a similar story, as a fire in the Perm club “Lame horse” (the incident occurred in December 2009 and has caused a public outcry and strong reaction of the Federal authorities. — “News”). — Like event occurs in a random, illogical but it makes more negative news flow in the region and creates a certain sense of chaotic and painful for public opinion in the Irkutsk region and the country as a whole, he explained “Izvestia”.
Vice-President of the Center for political technologies Rostislav Turovsky considers that in the Irkutsk region the General political instability combined with such high-profile events as the mass poisoning.
— Weak governors, which makes sure the population can reduce social optimism — said Rostislav Turovsky.
Director of the Institute for applied political studies Gregory Left, in contrast, believes that the rating gives a fairly conventional markers from the point of view of the real situation in the region.
For example, the mass poisoning surrogate alcohol in Irkutsk — the negative reason, which is replicated in the media, and on this basis, experts say that the situation has become worse. Although she is not seriously changed, because it’s a one-time episode, which is not necessarily in the future will have a significant impact on the agenda — said the expert.
The Director of the Center for political information Alexei Mukhin the position of the Irkutsk region in the ranking is also associated with the media component.
— The hype surrounding the poisoning surrogate alcohol is in the nature of the information campaign. This can happen in any field, in any region — if you take the NIB journalists from any misfortunes that happen everywhere, — he told “Izvestia”.
In Khakassia Republic and Primorsky Krai (both lost 0.4 points) the decrease is due to more traditional factor, says Mikhail Vinogradov. According to him, the position in the ranking of these subjects has affected the attention to the local authorities by law enforcement agencies.
— In Khakassia has arrested the head of the administration of Governor Vladimir Byzov, responsible for domestic politics, it again stimulated the conversations around Zimin (Viktor Zimin, head of Khakassia Republic. — “News”), “gathering clouds”. As for the Primorsky Krai, the summer just seemed like the Governor Vladimir Miklushevsky blow was given when arrested, his key opponent of the mayor of Vladivostok Igor Pushkarev. However, now there is a new wave, in particular around the figure of Elijah mitkina — adviser to the Governor, which plays a largely significant role in the political configuration of the region, — said Mikhail Vinogradov.
According to Alexei Mukhin, Primorsky Krai and Khakassia lost points due to a series of corruption scandals and declining indicators of socio-economic activity.
— It is rather the result echo “lobbying war” in the region among the regional elite groups, who divide the assets or the impact on the government and so on — he believes.
But the declining position of Adygeya (minus 0.3 points), according to Mikhail Vinogradov, is purely situational.
— In Adygea, in contrast to other regions it could be a reaction to the uncertainty end of the term of the incumbent head of the region Aslan Tkhakushinov, and some clear signals, there is it or not until heard, — said the expert.
My own position
In December in the group of regions with maximum stability (above 8 points) remained Tatarstan (8,3), Kaluga (8,3) and Penza (8,2) region, and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (8,2). According to Mikhail Vinogradov, in December, not much was added any one of the subjects.
— There is intrigue around what will be in the category of leaders of the Kemerovo oblast, the fall being subject to “attacks” of law enforcement. The region lost in this regard, five-tenths of a point and moved into the category of “regions with high resistance”, — said the analyst.
Mikhail Vinogradov stressed that in contrast to the December outsider — Vladimir Miklushevsky (Primorye territory) and Viktor Zimin (Khakassia) — Aman Tuleyev has demonstrated a tough stance in the protection of their employees (in November last year on charges of extortion was instituted criminal proceedings against several senior officials of Kemerovo). This position of a number of regional leaders relative to the Federal center does not always lead to negative consequences, the expert said.