Russia and Belarus have agreed on “Friendship”

Russia and Belarus have agreed on “Friendship”


Moscow and Minsk have agreed about restoration of volumes of oil supplies

Photo: RIA Novosti/Egor Eremov

In the fourth quarter, Russia will supply to Belarus through the pipeline “Druzhba” 5 million tons of oil versus 3.5 million tons in the third quarter, said Advisor to the President of “Transneft” Igor Demin.

According to him, in the first half of the volume of supplies amounted to about 11.5 million tons in the third quarter to 3.5 million t. Earlier it was planned that deliveries in the fourth quarter will amount to 3 million tons of oil, but last week the parties agreed to increase to 5 million tonnes, While long-term schedule of delivery of oil to Belarus foresees 24 million tonnes per year until 2024, said Demin.

Senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub notes that it is not about increasing Russian oil supplies to Belarus, and their restoration to previously agreed values.

— Reduction of oil supplies used by Russia as an instrument of pressure on Minsk in the course of dispute resolution in Gaza. Recall that since the beginning of the year Belarus paid to Gazprom for the gas price under the contract (about $132 per thousand cubic meters), and the so-called equal price, that is for the paid by Russian consumers (about $70). This resulted in debt — said Vadim Iosub.

He noted that the negotiations on the gas issue at various levels, up to the Prime Ministers and presidents of the two countries for a long time couldn’t break the deadlock. As a result, Russia as a leverage reduced supplies of crude oil from the processing of which is very painful depends on the Belarusian economy. Selling petroleum products is the main article of Belarusian exports.

In the third quarter shipments of Russian oil were reduced from the scheduled 5.3 million tonnes to 3.5 million tonnes, which, according to Belarusian Prime Minister Andrei Kobyakov, the Belarusian has already cost the economy 0.3% of GDP. In addition, it was announced that in the fourth quarter, Belarus will receive 3 million tons of oil. In response, the Belarusian side raised the tariffs for pumping of Russian oil by 1.5 times.

— As a result the parties managed to reach a compromise on the gas issue, Minsk promised to return the debt and return tariffs for transportation of oil and Russia promised to increase the supply of oil to Belarusian refinery to 5 million tons and if to call things by their proper names, simply to cancel the cuts. The long-term chart of oil supplies to Belarus remains unchanged at 24 million tonnes per year until 2024. As for the price of Russian oil for Belarus, it is not in absolute form or in the formula of its calculation is not disclosed, with reference to “trade secret”, — said the analyst “Alpari”.

Analyst GK TeleTrade mark Goikhman said that oil supplies from Russia to Belarus duty-free happen. In I and II quarters of 2016 delivery was 5.5 and 5.3 million tons of oil respectively. However, third quarter volume was reduced against target of 5.5 million tonnes to 3.5 million tonnes.

— This is due to a short supply of Belarusian oil products, its debt for the Russian gas and tariffs for its transit. Moscow was presented to the Minsk claims that it uses preferential oil prices not fully to return oil products made from it in Russia, and for their sale to other buyers. So, there’s a plan return of 1 million tons of oil products from Belarus to Russia. But the arrival of, for example, gasoline accounted for only seven months of 106.3 million tonnes, said mark real.

However, in October, the parties came to a consensus and at the rates and on the supply of hydrocarbons.

Belarus refused to increase payment for transit. Until 20 October, she must repay the debt to Russia for gas in the amount of about $300 million. Therefore, in the fourth quarter, the sales volume of oil will increase to 5 million tonnes and Prices will remain the same with discounts for the amount of the fee. But for the whole year instead of 24 million tons of our Western neighbour will receive less than 20 million tons Will offset the gap in 2017, is not yet resolved. Perhaps this question will be dependent on the implementation of the Minsk obligations to comply with the volume of supply of petroleum products, — said Goikhman.

Managing partner Kirikov Group Daniil Kirikov also noted that the increase in supply of oil and oil products to Belarus due to the fact that Moscow and Minsk failed to agree on the termination of the next conflict associated with the transit of hydrocarbons.

— The Belarusian side has accumulated significant arrears in the payment of gas supplies (to the beginning of September it was about $300 million), while seeking Russia to lower the cost of natural gas from $132 to $73 per thousand cubic meters. In response to the refusal to make concessions, the official Minsk began to consider the possibility of increase of duties on oil transit by 50%. For this reason, in the third quarter of 2016, Russia has taken retaliatory action, reducing oil supplies to Belarus from 5.3 million tons to 3.5 million tons, — said Kirikov.

In October, the parties managed to find compromise that led to the decision to resume the exports in the same volume.

According to Daniel Kirikova, the average price of Russian oil for Belarus in 2016 — $294 per ton (a year earlier the figure was $252). Representatives of the Belarusian authorities in the course of public speaking state that after payment of debt for gas supplies, Moscow would provide Minsk with discounts on natural gas, while in the Kremlin, these statements are not confirmed, nor denied. The question of reducing the cost of supply of petroleum and petroleum products were not raised, none of the parties.

The main suppliers of oil and petroleum products in the Republic — “Surgutneftegaz”, “LUKOIL”, “Rosneft” and “Gazpromneft”.

The Ministry of energy to respond promptly to the request of “News” could not.