Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina/RBC
By the end of the year the share of vacant space in the capital’s shopping centers can reach a historic high. The main reason is a large volume entering new areas and low buying activity
By the end of 2016, the volume of vacant space in shopping centres of Moscow may reach up to 15.5%, estimated by Knight Frank. It will be a new record at least for the last ten years, analysts say. For example, at the end of 2015, according to Knight Frank, without tenants remained, only 13.1% of the area.
Other advisors of the commercial real estate market, interviewed by RBC, are more optimistic in their forecasts. So, according to JLL, the number of available spaces in 2016 will not exceed 9%. According to the forecasts of Colliers International and “Shop of shops”, the vacancy rate in shopping centers in Moscow by the end of December should reach 10% — and the experts of Colliers call this record over the last eight years, Recalling its assessment methodology. According to forecasts CBRE, the vacancy rate will reach the level of 11.5%.
Vacant space in shopping centers experts explain, in particular, a large volume of new construction. According to the “Store shopping”, if before the end of this year, will open all previously announced projects (e.g. Butovo Mall, “a Prominent Park”, IFC in Kiev, “Auchan proletarian”, “Selectica”), in the second half of 2016, will be entered a record amount of retail space over the past ten years 466 thousand sq. m. Comparable to the amount of 415 thousand square meters — was introduced only in the second half of 2014. Then was built the maximum amount of shopping centers — 684 thousand sq. m. this year the capital market for new commercial real estate will be increased by 566 thousand sq. m. JLL believe that the amount of new retail space for the year will be slightly less than 500 thousand sq m will become the third biggest result over the past three years. It is on the shopping center, which opened in 2014, accounting for about 70% of available space on the market, says the head of Department of rent of shopping centers Russia & CIS at JLL Tatiana Malyanova.
On the background of significant volumes of retail trade turnover in Russia, according to forecasts of the Ministry of economy, in 2016 will be reduced by 2.7% to 2015. While real disposable incomes will fall even more, by 2.8%, is expected in the Ministry.
Influence on demand may launch traffic on the Moscow Central ring (ICC), experts Colliers International. Despite the fact that most of the stations located in large industrial zones in Moscow, some of them are close to Moscow’s largest shopping center, with the station “Baltiyskaya” station “Dubrovka” allow passengers to directly go to the Mall (in the shopping center “metropolis” and “Mosaic”, respectively). The reduction in travel time to the shopping centers located within walking distance from the stations CIP, will allow them to increase their coverage area and to attract additional customer audience. As a result, this will lead to increased traffic, and with it the turnover of tenants, predict experts from Colliers International.