Tax reform and the prospects of the Republicans

Tax reform and the prospects of the Republicans


Налоговая реформа и перспективы республиканцев

Experts believe that despite major legislative victory Trump and the Republicans will be difficult to expand its electoral base

WASHINGTON – Donald trump and his Republican allies in Congress Christmas came this week.

On Wednesday, Congress added the finishing touches to the bill on tax reform to prepare it for signing by the President in the coming days.

The victory of the President on tax reform completes his first year in office, which was full of political drama, but until now has not been marked by major legislative achievements.

For the President a large part of 2017 has been filled with distraction – wars with critics on Twitter to failures in healthcare and the investigation associated with Russia, which no end in sight.

The difficulties faced trump in its first year, reflected in poor ratings for a long time fluctuate around 35-40 percent, which is historically low for a new President.

“It’s not just the fact that about 60 percent of Americans disapprove of his work. What is really important is the fact that the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of his work, more than twice the number of Americans strongly approving his job,” said via Skype from an expert University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato.

The adoption of the tax bill should strengthen the position of the trump among his core electorate, which kept him faithful throughout his first year in office.

“I think these people are pretty firmly entrenched in their positions. We see among the supporters of the trump that he does have an electoral base that is not going to change my opinion. Among white evangelicals, for example, it is supported by more than 70 percent,” – said the head of the Public Institute for the study of religion Robert Jones.

Democrats vs trump

Democrats may have lost on the issue of taxes, but their recent success in the elections in Alabama and Virginia make them feel good results in the midterm elections next year.

“This tax law will be an anchor tied to the feet of every Republican. If they do not yet understand, you will understand in November next year”, – said the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Chuck Schumer.

Some analysts foresee the rise of the Democrats to the elections of 2018.

“We have seen the opposite in 2014 when Republicans turnout was good, and the turnout of Democrats are horrible and Republicans have managed to achieve very significant progress,” – said the expert from the University of Virginia’s Kyle kondik.

In the midterm elections Trump will also have to contend with history.

“We know that the President’s party usually loses seats in the first midterm elections of the presidential administration, and the situation is exacerbated when the President is unpopular, and given his current situation, it might affect the Republicans in 2018,” – said the researcher of the Brookings institution Molly Reynolds.

Probably, the main task of trump at the moment is finding ways of broadening its electoral base before the elections of 2018.

“To improve the ratings he needs to convince Democrats and some independent, among them support it now about 30 percent, and it is very difficult,” – says the sociologist from Gallup’s Frank Newport.