The average size of the monthly payment on the loans of Russians fell below the pre-crisis level
Photo: NEWS/Alexander Kazakov
Payments of Russians on loans to the beginning of this year has fallen below pre-crisis levels. As calculated in the joint credit Bureau (OKB), the average monthly payment has decreased in virtually all categories of borrowers on the average on 15% in comparison with the beginning of 2014. Despite this, for each category of borrowers in two years increased the share of non-performing loans (overdue 90 days or more) — approximately 7-9%. Experts predict that this trend will continue over the next two years.
The amount of the monthly payment Russians in different types of loans at the end of last year fell below the pre-crisis indicators, which were mentioned in the beginning of 2014. On average, according to the estimates of Bureau, the payment is reduced by 15%, and those citizens who have only one loan, and the owners of 2-4 loans.
In particular, the average payment borrower who has a loan has decreased from 2014 to the end of 2016 by 19% — to 10 thousand roubles. 15% reduction in payment of borrowers with two loans (up to 21 thousand rubles), 11% — the owners of three loans and four credits encumbered have to pay 3% less.
Only the so-called serial borrowers (with five or more loans) for two years had to pay more than 7%. Their monthly expense on loans has increased from 138 thousand to 148,2 thousand rubles.
Thus for two years, the proportion of potentially defaulted borrowers, that is, those citizens who are more than 90 days do not pay the loan. Such loans are considered uncollectible or unrecoverable. By the end of the previous year, 11% of borrowers with one loan were in this category. There, the OKB took 17% of the owners of the two loans, 21% — three loans and 26% four. Segment “serial” borrowers (five credits) has also deteriorated to 38% (proportion of defaulted borrowers) at the end of last year to 29% in 2014.
However, the payment discipline has deteriorated in the past more slowly than others, noted in the Bureau. Most likely, the credit situation with these citizens reached the limit and will continue to improve, believe in the credit Bureau.
In my opinion, this is a positive trend — said the Director of product development, the design Bureau Alexander Ahlomov. Is due to several factors. First, the toughening of requirements to borrowers from banks who acted for the past two years, will significantly improve the quality of new loans.
Second, the reduction in payment on loans and debt in General, due to the fact that in 2015-2016 have decreased the average check for new loans compared with the crisis period.
— In addition, starting mid-2015 interest rates for loans are consistently followed by the key rate of the Central Bank, which also helped to reduce the monthly loan payment, noted Ahlomov.
Head of development of credit products of the Bank Svetlana Gordeeva also noted that at the end of the crisis, in 2016 the largest retail banks stepped up their program of refinancing, offering borrowers lower rates and optimum terms.
— Trend was formed as a result of increased competition for quality borrowers the ability to reduce its debt burden. A program of the refinancing on the market are designed for borrowers, having no more than 3-4 credits. This explains the trend of reducing the size of payments in this category — said Svetlana Gordeeva.
As part of this work on the restructuring of the debt of a monthly customer payment of the loan is reduced by an average just for those 15-20%, which indicated in the Bureau, confirmed the “news” the Chairman of Board of Bank “Russian standard” Ilya Zebari. In some cases, the reduction reaches 40% of the original monthly payment, he added.
“Serial” borrowers, who have accumulated five or more loans, refinance loans, in principle, quite difficult — except at high rates and medium-sized banks willing to take higher risk, said Svetlana Gordeeva from the Bank. Therefore, the increased debt load of heavily indebted citizens.
In this situation, there is another explanation, said the head of Treasury Bank “Voronezh” Nicholas Chuklyaev. The fact that banks have really reduced interest rates on loans and deposits, as monetary policy easing, the Central Bank, but in the same period significantly reduced the income of the population. As a result, there was an increase in the level of deathnote on loans, the banker said.
Credit shock in the market of crediting of physical persons has passed, but both the market trends identified in the Bureau, will continue until the end of 2019, said bankers.
— If incomes start to rise, the pace will be extremely modest, but the debt burden remains substantial. This situation is extremely risky, because the consumer credit market remains frozen and gives banks to expand their activities, — predicts Nicholas Chuklyaev from the Bank “Voronezh”.
If the situation remains the same as last year, the growth in the number of debtors slowed only by the end of this year and next, their number may wane, agreed Alexander Ahlomov from EDO.
According to the Central Bank, crediting of natural persons increased last year by only 1.1%. When the real disposable income of Russia’s population in 2016 has declined by 5.9% and retail trade turnover by 5.2%.