Political analyst Alexei Martynov — what changes can bring 2017 Europe and the Europeans
Ahead of century the Russian revolution, many experts and detractors predicting a new upheaval in our country. Like, a century cycles and all that. A certain logic in their thinking is. But not for Russia.
Events of a century ago, the Great Russian revolution 1904-1917 years, as we know, ended in the destruction of the world’s largest state — the Russian Empire, which at the beginning of the last century had all the chances to become the sole superpower and to remain so during the next century. And, of course, the history of the twentieth century took place not in blood, but in the building. And probably scientific and technological progress would work in the first place not at war, and life. But as you know, the subjunctive mood history does not tolerate.
The destruction of a great country had on the Old world a huge impact. In fact, Most Russian revolution and determined the division of Europe into East and West, “programmed” bloody Second world war and laid the foundations for the formation of the United States of Europe, which in the end of XX century the natural was transformed into the EU.
Indeed, there have not been revolutions. It seemed that the lessons of the European Nations have long learned.
Nevertheless, it seems that the last 2016 have brought Europe to the most that neither is a radical change. Neither the European bureaucrats in Brussels or the European countries could see a global threat, which brought in the EU, the flows of migrants from Syria and North Africa. Neither Germany nor France are unable to actively protect its citizens and its socio-cultural space from the invasion of the “new Horde”. Are unable to show the rest of Europe of effective approaches to solving this problem. All measures were limited to increases in costs for the adaptation of millions of infidels and attempts to negotiate with Erdogan, that he did not allow refugees through Turkey for a “reasonable” fee of several billion euros.
This inability to cope with the real, to put it mildly, crisis, and actually almost a mortal threat to European identity, puts the national elites of the European countries in the face of the revolution. We are talking about a fundamental change of the situation in the shortest possible time.
Of course, we cannot discount the possibility of changes in the constitutional legal field — as a result of the election.
In the 2017 presidential elections will be held in France. In Germany elections to the Bundestag. From looking at these elections in each state and the EU as a whole depends not only their future, but the future of the European Union. Frau Merkel is the temptation to use the administrative resource and the fourth time in a row to become Frau kantslerin. But then, perhaps, Germany will revolt. The protection of their own socio-cultural space will again become for the Germans a matter of personal.
There is little doubt that Francois Hollande has long defended the French desire to vote for the party of socialists. But we can see how political efforts are being made to return them to the political field. That is contrary to the trends and moods is now not the physical rape of young European women newcomers barbarians, and the rape of the collective consciousness of loyal Europeans. And this is extremely dangerous. The last time 80 years ago, such experiments have brought to the political scene of Hitler and European national socialists.
It appears that, despite the loss in political struggle in the country, American Democrats of team Obama and their followers in eurobureaucrats community with the conviction of the Trotskyists of the 1930-ies continue the “world revolution”. They, of course, do not care about costs. They continue to consider Europe, the European space as an arena of struggle, as a prize. Let this fight and is in the nature of the modern hybrid warfare. while in the war world, but the meaning is the same. The terrorist attacks and economic crises are permanent, people are dying. In allies there are suitable any, including the most frostbitten and radical forces. The type of terrorist organizations, banned in Russia.
“Transit” in the United States gave many in Europe hope. However, the “Trotskyist international” under the leadership of Obama and his supporters are strong enough. While the political class of European States over the last 10 years used to live in a simulacra of political processes, so carefully organized and paid for by their American supervisors.
It is obvious that 2017 will be crucial to determine further ways of development of the European Union. And how it will be, depends on the foresight and common sense of European politicians.
The author is Director of the International Institute of the newest States
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial Board