Moscow economic forum of 2017
Photo: Stanislav Krasilnikov / TASS
Has started in the capital of the Moscow economic forum, whose members do not belong to the mainstream of Russian economic thought. This time they offered radical measures — from cheap credit to retain capital with an iron fist
Ongoing since 2013 MEF in name only is, in General, along with other economic forums in St. Petersburg, Sochi, East, etc., but the similarities end there. IEF do not visit government officials and representatives of big business, not satisfied with the event authorities and not the Fund “Recongress” preparing the all-Russian forum in St.-Petersburg, Sochi, Vladivostok, and Moscow state University, academics and industrial holding “New Commonwealth” (the largest asset — the plant “Rostselmash”). Members of the MEF that they absolutely do not support the actions of the government and the Central Bank, the difference is only in the degree of radicalism of their ideas.
The problem of “global financial regime”
The introductory session on the economic situation in Russia and in the world, the organizers called the dramatic — “the Confused man between despair and hope.” While Russia tried to double the GDP, the whole world began to assess the situation in their countries indicators related to human resources, explained the Deputy of the state Duma from the CPRF Oleg Smolin. In the USSR, such indicators were higher than the economic, and then fell sharply in the 1990s and 2000s are unable to recover to comparable with other countries, said the MP, calling the situation an “economic miracle on the contrary”; however, after 2007 the situation began to improve, he acknowledged. Negatively evaluating the situation in education and healthcare, putting their underfunding and criticizing the situation in the RAS, Smolov concluded: “I think that we, intellectuals, must better to teach the power of healing, including the moral ills and market fundamentalism.”
Market fundamentalism “is dead, but his cause lives on,” and this is manifested primarily in the expansion of inequality, the leaders of which are the United States, caught the moderator of the discussion, the head of the Institute of Economics Ruslan Grinberg. “The fundamental problem of increasing inequality, the global financial regime, the way the controlled world economy”, continued Professor, School of public Affairs to them. Lyndon Johnson (the University of Texas at Austin) James Galbraith.
Iron fist of capitalism
The St. Petersburg legislative Assembly Deputy Oksana Dmitrieva in his speech focused on criticism of specific actions of the government and the Central Bank. Members of MEF are each time, “talking about the same thing”, give advice to the government, but it does not listen to them, reminded Dmitriev, the result is “man-made crisis” because of the mistakes of the Cabinet and the Central Bank, which has already passed into the chronic stage. Loans remained expensive, no tax incentives, demand and real incomes are still declining, import substitution (with the exception of the defense) didn’t happen, the mobilization of budget funds, which “settled in the banking system”, — the same, profits rise, and investment falls, listed it. Authorities announced that “there is no crisis”, so the program exit is indignant the Deputy.
At the same time “the opposition of economic thought” we must abandon the idea of money issue — business and the public give banks a much cheaper money than the Central Bank (average interest rate on deposits of citizens is 6.5%, and the regulator — 9,75%), said Dmitriev. As a result, in Russia — “low-grade crisis” (a process accompanied by fever), summed up the speaker: “chronic sick body ceases to fight.” Traditional self-regulating mechanisms fail, and the government does not take any action, said Dmitriev.
Where the global was made by economist Yuri Boldyrev, at the end of the 1980s and 1990s, the years held positions in the Supreme Council, the Federation Council, the presidential administration and the chamber. “Robots,” as he characterized the representatives of transnational corporations, “is out of control, they start to dictate the rules of the game in their own interests” and “program agenda in the world that society could not confront”. The state should not force citizens to provide profits to private capital (for example, to insure the cars), he said: “We, society, must hold the capital with an iron fist”. Associate Boldyrev, Professor of economic faculty of Moscow state University Alexander Buzgalin, just saying that is on the “extreme left”, told about the system of “oligarchic-bureaucratic capitalism”, a reform which is impossible with a change of government or leadership of a Ministry. Business, according to him, the need to stimulate the “carrot and stick”, in particular, the need to punish companies that “do mediation” and trying to figure out “how to make us work 14 hours a day”.
One of the most high-ranking speakers of the forum was the President’s adviser Sergei Glazyev constant criticism of the Central Bank and the financial-economic bloc of the government. In Russia, he said, had “a unique experiment” — as a result, the share of domestic economy in the world since the early 1990s has not changed, and Chinese — has increased significantly, but Russia and China have roughly the same level. “Therefore, the dispute between libertarians and dirigiste can be considered completed, — concluded he. While we wander in broad daylight the Washington consensus under the flag of inflation targeting in the expectation that the invisible hand of the market where we lead, the Chinese comrades took market mechanisms, I do not know, or iron fist in the velvet gloves, but somehow they made the market work in the interests of economic growth.”
The secret of economic miracles in different countries — loans to Finance investment, talked eyes. In many States, a “target credit issue was the main mechanism of financing of the investment activity” and in the Russian economy are actually other sources for that, he explained, the savings of citizens, which could become an alternative, almost offset their debts on consumer loans. Free float of the ruble — “exotic thing” that created “a real Klondike for financial speculators”, the interest rates are “marginal” — as a result, Russian economic policy “is contrary to all contemporary experience,” was categorical eyes. Thus, according to the adviser of the President, he is not proposing to print money — the problem is that the issue has already been held, but the money went into commercial banks, which transferred them to the currency and “played against the ruble.” If we give the economy the missing 8 trillion in loans, it is possible to achieve GDP growth of 8-10%, he said.
The most reserved made by the other official — business Ombudsman Boris Titov, in the preparation of the economic program which involved and eyes. Money is not working on the economy not so much because of the high risk, which says the head of the Center for strategic development Alexey Kudrin, but because of high costs for business, he reasoned, also calling for “a policy of quantitative easing, Russian-style” (a stable exchange rate and bet on the level of “inflation plus 2%”). This can be achieved by expanding the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, says Titov. “To live in debt is normal,” he said, urging, however, does not go in the direction of over-regulation by the Chinese model.
Cranes and a country without a vision of the future
Director of the St. Petersburg tractor factory Alexander Serebryakov said on MEF that in Russia “there is no image of the country, we are building”, and the economy should work for human and society, not “a handful of people that usurped power”. The Chairman of the Board of Directors Galich mobile cranes plant Oleg Zelensky has told about results of work of the enterprise, revealing the success of the plant — wide lineup: “we Need a different chassis taps, different length arrows, and the various functions of the crane, which would give the opportunity for two years to recoup the crane”. Dean of Institute for financial studies, Renmin University of China Wang Veins acknowledged that his country has economic problems, but pointed out that they had not stopped progress, but also boasted knowledge of his family songs “Katyusha” and “Moscow nights”. Communist Deputy Nikolai Kolomeitsev said that every time the government comes up with a new strategy, but two years before the report begins to develop a new. The Chairman of the Board of MIC Oleg Bochkarev chided “liberals”, who are urged not to give money to the industries and cited the example of the defense complex, growing through public procurement. “I am a supporter of the fact that we have the right nation and we can make our Russian option is not only military but also civilian products,” he said.
The majority of Russian economists was formed in the Soviet era, and their views do not differ from the prevailing opinions of the era, says the head of the Economic expert group Evsey Gurvich. However, supporters of this view do not have a big influence on the economic policy of the state, he says, although now they have the channels to convey their ideas to government, particularly through business associations and the Stolypin club. “The content it calls back to the Soviet type of economy. They forget that by the end of its existence, it has degenerated” — emphasizes Gurvich.