The driver market this year will be St. Petersburg
Photo: lime/Zurab javakhadze
The rate of growth of lending for house purchase this year will slow by almost half compared with the year 2016 to 15%. The driver of growth of the market will be St. Petersburg — this is stated in the review of the regional mortgage lending, prepared by the Agency “Expert RA”. Despite the decline in the dynamics of the mortgage market, developers continue to cut prices amid rising competition, experts predict.
In 2017, the growth of mortgage loans slowed down in comparison with indicators of last year almost doubled — from 27% to 15%, analysts “Expert RA”. Thus, the volume of the market of mortgage lending for the year will reach 1.7 trillion roubles. Portfolio loans receivable mortgage will increase by 12% and will approach $ 5 trillion by the beginning of 2018.
The forecast is based on the fact that the effect of deferred demand formed during periods of economic stagnation for 2014-2015, has run its course. In addition, the experts noted that the demand from borrowers will not receive additional support because of the end of the state program of subsidizing interest rates on mortgages. It was adopted at the end of March 2015 and will be completed in may this year.
Another factor limiting the growth of mortgage lending this year will be the decline in housing construction.
To give impetus to the development of the market may be the fastest growing of the largest mortgage regions — St. Petersburg, said the experts. A distinctive feature of the mortgage market of the Northern capital are minimal in the country the level of interest rates and good payment discipline of borrowers. The city on the Neva can also be a promising direction for developers have added in “Expert RA” the growing price indexes in 2016 helped increase the volume of housing construction in spite of the average market dynamics.
The authors of the forecast expect that by the end of 2017, the share of the mortgage market attributable to Petersburg, will increase to 7%, resulting in growth of mortgage loans in the region will exceed the national average and make up more than 25%.
Petersburg last year, has overtaken Moscow in the growth rate of mortgage. If in Moscow the volume of loans grew by 35.5%, in St. Petersburg — by 39.6%.
To support the demand for housing and mortgages all across the country will this year lower interest rates along with a gradual recovery of the growth of disposable income of the population, experts of the Analytical center of the Agency for housing mortgage lending (AHML). Their forecasts for growth and the issuance of housing loans similar to the estimates of analysts of “Expert RA” — plus 10-15%.
The experts of the seller insist that to talk about the slowdown in the handout is incorrect. The Agency explained “Izvestia” that the market in the last year overcame the recession and moved on to growth.
— In 2016, the market recovered and attended the low base effect in 2015, now this effect we do not see, — said the Agency. Thus, the growth rate of loans by 15% this year, will mean that output from the market crisis on the path of sustainable development.
The most active housing construction and mortgage lending will grow not only in St. Petersburg but also in other major Metropolitan areas, where economic activity and there is effective demand for quality housing, added the Agency. We are talking about Moscow, Samara, Yekaterinburg and Rostov regions.
— The economy stabiliziruemost, and the population feels more comfortable, interest in the purchase of housing returns, — said the Deputy head of the Department, Director of mortgage sales VTB George Ter-Aristakesyan.
In his opinion, this will enable the market of housing loans to grow this year at the same 10-15% that they expect “Expert RA” and the seller.
In this case, perhaps, there will be a change in the trend of the cost of housing, consumer behavior economic recovery is changing, said senior Vice President, Director of mortgage lending at VTB24 Andrei Osipov.
— Expect that people will again be ready for expensive purchases and long-term loans, the banker said.
As I wrote earlier, “Izvestia”, the construction boom and the oversupply in the market will lead to lower housing prices.
According to the Central Bank, AIZhK and VTB group banks, mortgage rates to date, has fallen to pre — crisis levels on average 12% and below.