The Russians have less confidence in Medvedev after the investigation FBK

The Russians have less confidence in Medvedev after the investigation FBK


Photo: Dmitry Astakhov / TASS

Distrust of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev grew up in March showed the regular weekly confidence rating of the FOM. The critical attitude of respondents to the premiere coincided with the release of the investigation of Alexei Navalny, Medvedev

Confidence falls

The Russians have less confidence in Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev following an investigation of the Fund of struggle against corruption. This follows from the rating of trust to Dmitry Medvedevpublished by Fund “Public opinion” (FOM) on Friday, March 31. Respondents respond to two questions: do they trust the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has changed and how their attitude to politics over the last month.

Of course, trust the head of the White house as of March 26, 11%. This is below the 14% according to the poll on March 5 and 15% last September.

Since March, more of the respondents certainly do not trust Medvedev. Answered 23% of respondents 26 Mar against 21% 26 Feb. At the same time, 27 Nov 2016 only 18% expressed unconditional distrust of the Prime Minister (the peak of distrust in 24% was last October).

More or less stable is the amount of soon do not trust the second person of the state: 23% February 26 against 24% on 26 March. The peak of distrust sociologists recorded March 19 (25%).

Respondents from the beginning of March often respond critically to the question: “Over the last month you have become more or less trusting Medvedev?” If 11% have more confidence in Medvedev as of March 26, these respondents on 26 February was 13%.

Have less confidence in Medvedev (32%) according to the survey on March 26. A month before, a similar response was given 28% of respondents (this level corresponds to the previous July).

Loss of confidence in the Prime Minister coincides with the release March 2 of the investigation of the Fund of struggle against corruption (FBK) Alexei Navalny. Team opposition published material about the residences Medvedev and its related funds, which received 70 billion rubles in donations. The film FBK based on the investigation “you do not Dimon” on YouTube by March 31, scored 15.8 million hits. “Comment on the propaganda attacks of the opposition and the convict character, who said that he already has some campaign and fighting with the government, stupid”, told RBC press-Secretary of Medvedev Natalya Timakova.

March 26 in Moscow and dozens of other large cities of Russia have passed anticorruption meetings, the participants demanded that the authorities reaction to the film of the FBC. The scale was Moscow anti-corruption rally — more than 1 thousand people were arrested following the campaign. At issue in Instagram, as the President had day when the inhabitants of Russia at the protest urged the Prime Minister to answer charges of corruption, the Prime Minister replied: “Well, ski, ride” and put a smiley face.

The regular survey the public opinion Foundation, in which Russians answer two questions — do they trust the head of the Russian government and how to change their attitude to politics over the last month — once a week. Pollsters interviewed 1,500 respondents 18 years and older in the mode of personal interview in 100 settlements of Russia. The data for this survey were collected before the rallies against corruption, therefore the protests have not yet had time to influence the opinion of respondents.

Sociologists also measure the credibility of Medvedev. The number of those who “rather trust” or “absolutely trusts” President of Russia Vladimir Putin, March 5 amounted to 40 and 41%, respectively, and by 26 March had dropped to 39%. The number of those who “definitely do not trust the President” for a specified period, is unchanged at 7%, and the number of those who Putin “rather not trust”, grew 1 percent to 8 to 9% of the respondents.

The role of the FCO and rallies

Obviously, the loss of confidence in the Prime Minister continues, said RBC analyst Abbas Gallyamov. Protests by themselves a strong factor of delegitimization, “and then there’s a very bad reaction [premiere] with the skiing,” he said. “Criticism of the late Ministers, the situation here is not correct, — says the analyst. Prime do becomes “toxic”, and the fact that the President publicly supported him, will lead to the fact that the claims now spread to the head of state, and the system as a whole.”

Senior analyst FOM Gregory Cartman said that the film FBK “played minor role” in the chart is shifted in the direction of confidence to Dmitry Medvedev. “To talk about the trend [of discontent Dmitry Medvedev] is difficult. For the last week in the chart, nothing has changed at all: the share of the trust decreased by 1%, the proportion distrusting decreased by 1%. If we were talking about the steady pace wouldn’t be such indicators. And the previous week between March 12 and March 19 there was a certain shift, which, technically, fits into the framework of error. Is this a shift from a serious condition, difficult to tell. There are other factors, perhaps along with other factors, played a small role,” explained Cartman.

A sociologist at the Levada center Denis Volkov admitted that the downgrade could be related to the investigation of the FBC and subsequent protests, but “to overestimate their influence is not worth it.” “It’s all in the size of statistical error. And to lock in reductions [of the rating. — RBC] as a trend, you need to conduct several measurements. Two or three measurements. Then we will understand this fall or not,” he said.

Political analyst Gleb Kuznetsov told RBC that it counts all polls “manipulative tool”. “The instrument itself — the poll — me confidence is. What they do weekly and measure that fell by 2%, and tomorrow has grown, it is the sociologists and marketing their own services,” — said Kuznetsov. In addition, as noted by the analyst, “2% is a decrease within statpogreshnosti”.