Photo: Adek Berry/AFP
Analysts ruled out the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank until the end of the year
Hedge funds turned almost all the bets on the ruble weakening
Oct 24, 02:58
The dollar may fall even below 60 rubles in 2016, according to analyst VTB 24. Other economists doubt in the implementation of such a positive scenario for the ruble
The pair dollar/ruble will break down the mark of 60 rubles to the end of 2016, says the analyst of investment Department VTB24 Alexei Mikheyev. His comment was published in the analytical review of the Bank on Wednesday, October 26.
According to Mikheev, the only reason the ruble may strengthen, is a further rise in oil prices. “Oil well, showing the October 10 high at $53,73 per barrel, left for correction to $50, due to the fact that in the international currency market the dollar has increased markedly”, he explained to RBC.
Mikheev believes that the upward trend in commodity currencies and currencies of developing countries remains. “To his main opponent — the Euro — dollar have not even started yet really to fall. Therefore, the growth potential of all assets, in opposition to the dollar, still big,” he says. Until the end of the year, the dollar against the ruble may fall to 55 rubles, if oil prices rise to $63-65 per barrel, allows Mikheev.
In addition, the Federal reserve system (FRS) the USA will not raise rates this year, Mikheyev adds. He expects that this will cause a rise in the Euro and further inflame the appetite of investors for risky assets.
Other analysts doubt that the implementation of such a positive scenario for the ruble. From the consensus of experts surveyed by RBC, it follows that the dollar by year-end will be of 64.3–65 RUB. a great help for the growth of oil prices may become a meeting of OPEC on November 30, said the chief analyst of Nordea Bank Olga Lapshina. However, in her estimation, even if the cartel and other oil producing countries agreed to reduce or limit production, the price of Brent crude will rise to a maximum of $55 per barrel. In this case, the dollar will decline only to RUB 60-61, expects it. The rate hike by the fed USA in December Lapshin considered as very probable. Consequently, any positive effect of the ruble and other em currencies from the meeting on 30 November, will limit subsequent growth of the dollar, she says.
Head of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev also expects that the fed will raise rates. “So if the dollar will drop below 60 rubles to the end of the year, for a very short time,” he says.
The fed in 2016 will hold two more meetings, which may change the interest rate in the economy — November 1-2 and December 13-14. The last time the fed raised the rate in December 2015 and 25 b.p. with a 0-0,25%.
Wednesday, October 26, the cost of December futures for Brent oil fell to a minimum of $from 49.66 per barrel, follows from data exchange ICE. The last time oil cost less than $50 3 Oct. On Wednesday evening the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange rose to 63 RUB (open price — 62,12 RUB).